Environmental regulation and its impact on welfare and international competitiveness in a Heckscher-Ohlin framework

This paper discusses the issue of competitiveness and environmental regulation from the viewpoint of Heckscher-Ohlin models. It demonstrates that the impact of unilateral environmental regulations does not necessarily lead to a decrease in international competitiveness. Important is the measure of international competitiveness and the industry under consideration. Furthermore, this paper shows that in contrast to other theoretical work on this subject, unilateral environmental regulation does not necessarily lead to capital flight. It is also possible that the economy under consideration attracts more internationally mobile capital.

A note on the double dividend hypothesis

This paper tries to clear the confusion in the literature about the potential of environmental tax reforms to yield a double dividend. In opposition to a number of recent papers it is found that the possibility for a double dividend depends largely on the substitutabllity characteristics of taxed commodities and not on the uncompensated elasticities. It is found that a double dividend is possible, if the following conditions are met. First, the initial tax system has to be inefficient from a non-environmental point of view. Second, it is possible to raise the tax on the externality creating commodity and in exchange to reduce the tax on a commodity that is a gross substitute for the externality creating commodity. Third, under the existing distortionary tax system the commodity whose tax is reduced is relatively difficult to substitute through other taxed commodities and hence, easier to substitute through the untaxed numeraire.

South Asia in the corona crisis: economic and political consequences

In the countries of South Asia, the rampant coronavirus pandemic could affect more than 1.9 billion people - almost a quarter of the world’s population. Given the weaknesses of national health care systems, the fight against the virus seems to be lost before it has even begun. The economic damage will increase the levels of poverty and inequality, and it is likely to exacerbate rather than mitigate a number of existing conflicts. On the domestic front, it is feared that authoritarian tendencies will increase during the management of the crisis. In the regional context, China could further expand its influence at the expense of India

Environmental tax reform and the double dividend: An econometric demand analysis

This paper examines the empirical relevance of the double dividend of revenue neutral marginal environmental tax reforms. For this purpose we use an extended version of the Ahmad-Stern model of indirect taxation. This version includes environmental externalities. We estimate the key parameters of the model with different dynamic specifications of the Almost Ideal Demand System. We find no evidence that a revenue neutral environmental tax reform that increases the energy or gasoline tax yields a double dividend.

Environmental tax reform with irreversible investment, technological progress and unemployment

This paper analyzes if unemployment can be reduced through labor tax cuts that are financed in a revenue neutral way through energy tax increases. In contrast to other papers on this topic we consider investment behavior of firms in energy saving technologies, irreversibilities, embodied technological progress and involuntary unemployment. Arguments are presented that reducing the sunk costs instead of the labor tax seems to be the better instrument to reduce energy input and unemployment since this puts more pressure on firms that are using old technologies to adopt a more efficient energy saving technology.

Paired Sr isotope (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, δ^88/86Sr) systematic of pore water profiles: A new perspective in marine weathering and seepage studies

The simultaneous and independent determination of the radiogenic (87Sr/86Sr) and the fractionation reflecting stable (!88/86Sr) Sr isotope ratio on pore waters, sediments and precipitates (e.g. carbonates and sulfates) opens a new perspective in the field of submarine weathering and Sr contribution to the ocean chemistry. Four initial case studies covering (1.) CO2 seeps of the Okinawa Trough (OT), (2.) mud volcanoes (MV) and mounds in the Gulf of Cadiz (GoC) and the (3.) Central American Fore Arc as well as first results from the (4.) Black Sea are conducted and reflect a stable Sr perspective on seeps from a broad range of geological settings. Referred to NIST-SRM-987, in this study the IAPSO seawater (SW) standard has a !88/86Sr of 0.39 ‰ (±0.03, 2SD). As a prominent systematic deviation the OT pore water (PW) data from a site with CO2 hydrate and liquid CO2 occurence show values ranging from 0.27 to 0.59 ‰ (286 to 64 cm sediment depth), accompanied by a weak inversely correlated trend from 0.2 to 0.15 ‰ for the corresponding bulk sediment (286 to 36 cm). In contradiction to a simple fluid/SW-mixing approach as driving mechanism for the PW stable Sr trend the 87Sr/86Sr signature stays within analytical uncertainty constant with depth (0.70980 (1)) and differs significantly from SW (0.70917 (1)) and the more radiogenic, slightly heterogeneous sediment (0.71892-0.71731). Potential explanation for the observed !88/86Sr trend and PW signatures heavier than SW are (a) strong fractionation processes enriching light isotopes in secondary precipitates and remineralisation products and heavier signatures in the remaining fluid and/or (b) preferential dissolution of heavier mineral phases. Examples for the latter kind of sediment component are determined in a detailed study of the Mercator MV (GoC) by high !88/86Sr ratios of 0.72 for authigenic and 0.92 ‰ for potentially extruded gypsum crystals. Combined with PW data from the other seep settings (0.2 to 0.52 ‰) a broad range of Sr contribution and fractionation processes becomes evident

Posterior accuracy and calibration under misspecification in Bayesian generalized linear models

Generalized linear models (GLMs) are popular for data-analysis in almost all quantitative sciences, but the choice of likelihood family and link function is often difficult. This motivates the search for likelihoods and links that minimize the impact of potential misspecification. We perform a large-scale simulation study on double-bounded and lower-bounded response data where we systematically vary both true and assumed likelihoods and links. In contrast to previous studies, we also study posterior calibration and uncertainty metrics in addition to point-estimate accuracy. Our results indicate that certain likelihoods and links can be remarkably robust to misspecification, performing almost on par with their respective true counterparts. Additionally, normal likelihood models with identity link (i.e., linear regression) often achieve calibration comparable to the more structurally faithful alternatives, at least in the studied scenarios. On the basis of our findings, we provide practical suggestions for robust likelihood and link choices in GLMs

Prediction can be safely used as a proxy for explanation in causally consistent Bayesian generalized linear models

Bayesian modeling provides a principled approach to quantifying uncertainty in model parameters and model structure and has seen a surge of applications in recent years. Within the context of a Bayesian workflow, we are concerned with model selection for the purpose of finding models that best explain the data, that is, help us understand the underlying data generating process. Since we rarely have access to the true process, all we are left with during real-world analyses is incomplete causal knowledge from sources outside of the current data and model predictions of said data. This leads to the important question of when the use of prediction as a proxy for explanation for the purpose of model selection is valid. We approach this question by means of large-scale simulations of Bayesian generalized linear models where we investigate various causal and statistical misspecifications. Our results indicate that the use of prediction as proxy for explanation is valid and safe only when the models under consideration are sufficiently consistent with the underlying causal structure of the true data generating process

Personal Career Development Plans for all ESRs : Deliverable number: D1.1 - Version 1.1

In the ROMSOC project continuous career development strategies for the Early Stage Researchers (ESRs) are set up in order to enhance the career perspectives and employability of the recruited fellows to many public and private sectors (involving industry and research institutes). An intensive and highly qualified supervision and mentoring program, as well as the network-wide training activities contribute to the development of task-oriented research skills, generic research skills and transferable skills. The goal of the ROMSOC project is that the ESRs experience a wide range of interdisciplinary and intersectoral training to enable them to become professional workers and to take responsibility for their project and career management, while reflecting on their own skills and actively pursuing their own training needs.EC/H2020/765374/EU/Reduced Order Modelling, Simulation and Optimization of Coupled Systems/ROMSO